Broken Promises

Broken record. Romney's premise is that voters are so stupid that you can fool them again and again. So far, he's been proven right. Let's hope 2012 teaches him a much needed life lesson.

This line of attack, incidentally, is a much needed corrective, and a possible path to a Democratic victory.

Stunning, historic stuff

Apropos of our earlier post, remarkable polling news out of Maryland from PPP polling.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Maryland finds a significant increase in support for same-sex marriage among African American voters following President Obama’s historic announcement two weeks ago. The referendum to keep the state’s new law legalizing same-sex marriage now appears likely to pass by a healthy margin. Here are some key findings: -57% of Maryland voters say they’re likely to vote for the new marriage law this fall, compared to only 37% who are opposed. That 20 point margin of passage represents a 12 point shift from an identical PPP survey in early March, which found it ahead by a closer 52/44 margin. -The movement over the last two months can be explained almost entirely by a major shift in opinion about same-sex marriage among black voters. Previously 56% said they would vote against the new law with only 39% planning to uphold it. Those numbers have now almost completely flipped, with 55% of African Americans planning to vote for the law and only 36% now opposed. -The big shift in attitudes toward same-sex marriage among black voters in Maryland is reflective of what’s happening nationally right now. A new ABC/Washington Post poll finds 59% of African Americans across the country supportive of same-sex marriage. A PPP poll in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania last weekend found a shift of 19 points in favor of same-sex marriage among black voters. While the media has been focused on what impact President Obama’s announcement will have on his own reelection prospects, the more important fallout may be the impact his position is having on public opinion about same-sex marriage itself.

And it bears pointing out. No one else could have achieved this except Barack Obama.

UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan notes, regarding the same set of numbers:

The magnitude of what Obama has done is getting more and more tangible. He has gone from JFK to LBJ on civil rights in three years. And bridging the divide between gays and African-Americans will help both communities, and especially those who are gay and black. This kind of defusing of polarization is what many of us hoped for in Obama. On this issue, he has delivered. And how.

The road to 270

There are three states that the Obama and Romney campaigns are bombarding with ads: Iowa, Virginia and Ohio. A look at our latest electoral map explains why:

The 2012 electoral map has become exceedingly defined very early in the process. Yes, the map has been pretty tight since 2000, the 2008 landslide being an anomaly. Obama was also the ideal candidate to take advantage of long term shifts in a few states (NC, VA, CO); that, too, makes the map look slightly different from how it looked 12 or more years ago. But otherwise, we are more or less in the same place: a Confederacy united against a president who doesn't oppose African American voting rights (that goes back to 1968, after all), a Northeast, West, and upper Midwest that's pretty solidly Democratic, and just a handful of purples.

In a Romney landslide, it is possible to envision some shifts in the lean Obama states (light blue). An Obama landslide could see, for example, Florida tip over to Obama. But right now, that appears unlikely. Only one poll (PPP in April) showed Obama at 50 in the state at a time Obama held a temporary but strong lead nationwide. Most recent Florida polls show him struggling to get past 45%, even when he is slightly ahead of Romney. Given the polarization of the electorate and the tendency of undecideds to go with the challenger, Democrats cannot afford to assume they can carry a state where the President is below 47%. It isn't impossible, but it's a tough slog. I am moving Florida from Tossup to Lean Republican.

When gay activists pushed Obama into announcing his support six months too early, they may well have jeopardized his re-election, which, given the uncertainties around Justice Ginsburg's health, could also mean a Supreme Court that is against equality well into the 2040's. There are at least four battleground states where the decision will cost the President.

One of them is North Carolina, which I am moving from tossup to Lean Republican. Yes, it will be close. Yes, it will be a three point contest. That is because the state is nearly a quarter black and has a base of moderate whites that guarantee him a floor of 46%. But that won't be enough this time, and certainly not in a close race. Any of the three true battlegrounds would have been a better convention hosting choice, though one can understand the optimism behind the decision to go with NC a year ago.

The map I have created shows the President with a 266 electoral votes and Romney with 235. There are only three tossups: Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa.  The good news for the President is that he only needs to carry one.  The bad news for the President is that this is a wholly attainable goal for Romney. Gay marriage will matter a lot in Iowa and Ohio. Don't believe me? Remember this piece from the New York Times after the 2004 election:

In Ohio, for instance, political analysts credit the ballot measure with increasing turnout in Republican bastions in the south and west, while also pushing swing voters in the Appalachian region of the southeast toward Mr. Bush. The president's extra-strong showing in those areas compensated for an extraordinarily large Democratic turnout in Cleveland and in Columbus, propelling him to a 136,000-vote victory.

"I'd be naïve if I didn't say it helped," said Robert T. Bennett, chairman of the Ohio Republican Party. "And it helped most in what we refer to as the Bible Belt area of southeastern and southwestern Ohio, where we had the largest percentage increase in support for the president. [...]

"If you look around rural, Appalachian Ohio, you'll see there were many counties that Bush won by better than 60 percent of the vote," Professor Green said. "Those are the areas where you'd see increased turnout because of this issue. And I think that increase was large."

Gay marriage was courageous, but it was a defensive move caused by diminishing support for the most pro-gay president in US history by gay activists who don't care that people can be fired for being gay and have chosen to push for marriage rights instead. Forcing Obama to prepone his support of the most polemical issue on the gay rights agenda could put not only more attainable goals of gay equality but the entire progressive movement at risk.

For what's at stake in 2012 is not just the Presidency but a return to unitary government, with the Republicans in charge of all three branches of government. They already have the Supreme Court and the House, with the Senate on the razor's edge. Democrats may well lose the Senate even with an Obama victory.

So yes, the stakes are high. The battlegrounds are exceedingly few. The 2012 election, right now, looks like a nailbiter. The good news is that the President's prospects continue to look far better than they did 6 months ago.

Romney Economics: Bankruptcy and Bailouts at GST Steel

How Romney really feels about American workers:

The great Donna Summer is gone

But always with us. The first time I heard her perform this was the first time I saw her live. Before an audience of *the* most crazed, enthusiastic fans I have seen for an artist at any concert (yes, including Springsteen), she introduced this song as a song from a musical written for her called "Ordinary Girl." It's a prayer, it's disco, it's alive. It's not her best known song. It doesn't have as killer a hook as that most compassionate of pop statements, "Bad Girls" or the production of "I Feel Love," "Walk Away," "Dim all the Lights" or or any number of other Moroder-era classics. Nor does it have the neat close of "In Another Place and Time." But it's autobiography, and it speaks truth as much as any of her other great artistic accomplishments do. For the first minute alone (a verse cruelly chopped away by a video editor), it's a perfect epitaph.



In case you missed it on the Twitter feed, Ann Powers' piece on NPR was the best of the day.

Gold

Far worse than Kerry, who was trying to make a point about what being the complicatedness of Senate votes. This is just a statement about the brazenness of his Etch-a-sketch candidacy. Via The Atlantic Wire and Buzzfeed:

Speaking at a press conference Wednesday, Mitt Romney answered a question on a statement he made about Reverend Jeremiah Wright by saying, "I’m not familiar precisely with exactly what I said, but I stand by what I said. Whatever it was." That's an out-of-context soundbite about as damning as John Kerry's "I voted for it before I voted against it."

Buzzfeed's Andrew Kaczynski flagged the video:

Transformational as President Obama has been

Let's not leave out Lula and his successor, Dilma (no other Brazilian presidents are known by their first name).   A human rights hero long before entering Lula's Cabinet, she brought things full circle today in this utterly stirring speech announcing a Brazilian Truth Commission to document the crimes of that country's military dictatorship.  The stuff of legend. If you know Portuguese, or even if you know some Spanish, take a listen.

"O Brasil não pode se furtar a conhecer a totalidade de sua história. Trabalhamos juntos para que o Brasil conheça e se aproprie dessa totalidade da sua história", disse ela. "A sombra e a mentira não são capazes de promover a concórdia. O Brasil merece a verdade", acrescentou.

Ao final do discurso, Dilma se emocionou ao falar nos mortos e desaparecidos. "As novas gerações merecem a verdade e, sobretudo, merecem a verdade factual aqueles que perderam amigos e parentes e que continuam sofrendo, como se eles morressem de novo a cada dia", afirmou ela, que em outras ocasiões lembrou companheiros perdidos durante o período.

"É como se disséssemos que, se existem filhos sem pais, se existem pais sem túmulo, se existem túmulos sem corpos, nunca, nunca mesmo, pode existir uma história sem voz. E quem dá voz à história são os homens e mulheres livres que não têm medo de escrevê-la".

Savvy politician that she is, she also got all of Brazil's ex-presidents to attend the inaguration of the commission. That's how you get it done.

One of the better summaries

Of the Eurocrisis:

But what has become unavoidably clear is that Germany, the linchpin of the eurozone, has been hopelessly stuck in an attitude that makes the break-up of the eurozone almost unavoidable. If Germany cannot pull itself together to keep Spain in the euro, then the markets can no longer ignore the fact that the lack of leadership and governance is a fatal flaw in the system.

What accounts for this? I would argue that the heart of the problem lies in the political culture of Germany and the mindset of its political and economic elites, which have never been willing to admit to their own voters the sacrifices that must be undertaken in order to be the leader of Europe. Instead, they have led Germans to believe that they can have it both ways: enjoying the fruits of the eurozone while times were good, and lobbing the burden of adjustment onto others when times got bad.

Maurice Sendak and kids

Terry Gross: Can you share some of your favorite comments from readers that you've gotten over the years?

Maurice Sendak: Oh, there's so many. Can I give you just one that I really like? It was from a little boy. He sent me a charming card with a little drawing. I loved it. I answer all my children’s letters — sometimes very hastily — but this one I lingered over. I sent him a card and I drew a picture of a Wild Thing on it. I wrote, “Dear Jim: I loved your card.” Then I got a letter back from his mother and she said, “Jim loved your card so much he ate it.” That to me was one of the highest compliments I’ve ever received. He didn’t care that it was an original drawing or anything. He saw it, he loved it, he ate it.

Some thoughts on the latest CBS/New York Times poll

With the usual caveat that this is just registered voters, no likely voter screen. Some are arguing for a GOP advantage of as much as 6 points for likely voters versus registered, though I would limit it 2%, which at this moment, looks pretty damn crucial.

1. Obama's job approval in this poll is exactly 50%. If registered voters matche likelies, that would mean Romney has no shot at all. But when the disapproval rating is 48%, all that proves is that this could turn on a dime. Add the problem of turnout, and we're at the razor's edge. And here's a striking thing: Obama is not getting re-elect numbers that match job approval. Chalk it up to the GOP's "Obama's a nice guy who's in over his head" rhetoric or something else, but Romney is beating him 46-43, even though the President has a 50% job performance number. Something here is not computing. Strangely, in this poll, Obama's favorables are 45-45. So this is either an anomaly or a sign that job approval numbers might not be the go-to in this election that they ordinarily are.

2. The rating for the economy (31% say fairly good, while 39% say fairly bad and 28% very bad) is disturbing. But these are also the best numbers in Obama's entire presidency. Crucially, the previous top number came just one month ago. So something is definitely happening out there, fragile as it might be. But it's also worth noting that amalgamated "good" numbers for Bush in 2004 were close to 55%.

3. 36% say the economy is improving. Those are better numbers than any recorded in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 or 2008. They are close to a high water mark for the President, but there was a brief moment, from late 2009 to early 2010, where he did a bit better.

4. 19% of Americans are either undecided on Romney and 12% claim they haven't heard enough. That's 31% of the country that can be affected by negative campaigning, which is another reason that if you have money to spend on campaigning, Priorities USA might be an excellent direction to send it towards.

5. The headline is that "more Americans favor gay marriage." But the numbers are 38-31, with 24% supporting civil unions. Civil unions supporters are not necessarily Obama voters, since they don't favor full equality. They could very well be right-leaning Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic, and Western independents. And indeed, if pushed and not given the option of civil unions, 51% of Americans say same sex marriage should not be legal, with 42% saying it should be. 50% favor a federal marriage amendment.

6. 69% now say they have a "work colleague, close friend, or relative who is gay or lesbian," an all time record.

7. So to summarize, danger all around. I'd suggest that the President's team go massively negative on Romney's economic record, particularly in Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania. To the degree that those states are safe, it's hard to see a path to victory for Romney, even with a small popular vote victory. Indeed, one of the big unknowns on gay marriage is its regional background. If there are supermajorities against it in the South and non-Pacific West, that may not hurt the President much where he actually needs to win.

Breakthrough?

A lot of self-appointed experts (mostly white, and Touré) on cable news have made a point of saying that the President's pro-gay views might cost him votes in the black community this November. Others suggested that it might cost him in terms of turnout.

Now comes an article that suggests something that appears to have been on no one's radar screen.

Obama sent ripples through the country and caused Annie May Johnson to take a second look at an issue she thought she’d decided on long ago.

“I always saw marriage as a man and a woman being together for a lifetime,’’ says Johnson, on the phone from her North Carolina home. “That’s all I ever saw growing up, and that is all my parents saw in their day. But when Obama said he now was in favor of it, I thought maybe I’ve been too pigheaded about this thing for too long.’’

Johnson is like many older, deeply religious blacks in this country—women in particular—who attend church each Sunday, tithe 10 percent of their income without fail to their religious institution of choice, and try as best they can to live life by the letter of the Bible.

She’s also among many in the black community who believe in giving the first African-American president the benefit of the doubt on controversial political issues, even if his view is worlds apart from their own way of thinking. [...]

The most recent Pew poll taken this past April showed only 47 percent of African Americans oppose gay marriage today, nearly 20 percentage points lower than in 2008.

And that's before the President's pronouncement. A big factor, and it would have to be, would be the sordid case of Bishop Eddie Long, which though virtually unknown outside of the black community, was very well documented indeed within it.

The wealthy pastor ran (and still runs) a megachurch of 25,000 not far from Atlanta. His primary credential for this position was a Bachelor's in Business Administration, and while it could certainly be argued he deserves an honorary doctorate in the field, few would say the same for his doctorate in pastoral ministry, because it's from the unaccredited "International College of Excellence."

Anyway, about two years ago, three men filed lawsuits against him (two more have stepped forward since), saying that Eddie Long "befriended them" only to demand sexual favors from them. Eddie Long, however, was never accused of being a child predator. That is because in the state of Georgia, the age of consent is 15, which, it appears, he followed scrupulously. If you know what I mean.



This incident had powerful repercussions, and not just within the black comedy underground. As the University of Pennsylvania's Anthea Butler wrote at the time:

The real story however, is that this case explodes the cover of the black church’s internal don’t ask, don’t tell policy which has had a profound effect on the community and its followers. It’s very interesting that the Long scandal broke almost immediately after black pastors led by Bishop Harry Jackson came together with the Family Research Council to oppose the repeal of the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell Act. Many black pastors have staked their entire ministries on the “family” and the obsession with mainstream gender norms that encourage heterosexual marriage, abstinence, and patriarchal norms. It is an all-encompassing message that is obsessed with the suppression of sexuality in black churches, mega-churches and storefronts alike.

The Homophobia and sexophobia of black church leaders can be found in their literature, preaching, and revivalism [...] The master at this is Donnie McClurkin, whose tearful testimonies about being molested and sleeping with men culminated at the past Church of God in Christ (COGIC) convocation with him wailing about people “turning out” the children. Perhaps he forgot where he was turned out first. The church.

So the Eddie Long crisis is not just a crisis for himself, the accusers, Long’s family and the church; it’s a clarion call to African-American churches to cease and desist with the homophobia and finally start to deal with the fact that its not the folks in the pews who need to be disciplined, it’s the corrupt, bankrupt leadership of many, though not all, churches. The endless round of pastor’s anniversaries, offerings, and the fawning “my pastor is God and can do no wrong” theology of black churches needs to stop. [...] If the Catholic church can’t get a pass on its sexual and pedophilia scandals, why should mega-church pastors?   

Eddie Long once said of adult, consenting gay men, "You deserve death." "I wonder," I wrote then, "what ministers who abuse underage boys deserve." Of course, that was inappropriate of me, given, you know, Georgia law.

There's a chance that the President Obama has in a single stroke accomplished something that progressive religious leaders have attempted but might otherwise have taken fifty years: a permanent shift in African American attitudes regarding gay rights---that in addition to having no impact on black turnout in this election, his decision may have changed the practice of several theological traditions. The possibility of a breakthrough regarding gay civil rights in the black community was part of the promise of his presidential candidacy, albeit one that seemed too much to hope for.

 It no longer seems impossible.

Change

Every president, goes the cliche, campaigns in poetry and governs in prose. But when the level of poetry is as high as Barack Obama's was in 2008, the sudden move to prose is jarring. And no matter how many historic achievements Barack Obama chalked up, there was a significant group of people, many young, many avid readers of political blogs, whose barometer for President Obama lay in how good a policy "felt."

So it didn't matter when he achieved what no President succeeded in achieving in 40 years: getting hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies through Congress for health care. The base was upset at Obama because he couldn't get more than 53 Democratic votes for a more ambitious extension of Medicare. Never mind that Joe Lieberman and Democratic senators from red states that Obama lost by 20 points would never have voted for it. Policy sausagemaking turned these voters off, and Obama seemed to be just another politician.

It didn't matter that the President ended the war in Iraq, as he had promised to, when every other candidate running for President, including his major Democratic opponent, ran as defense hawks.

It didn't matter that he increased student loans, got corrupt banks out of the process and used those billions in savings for more student programs. It didn't matter that he increased Pell Grants.

If you read comments at the Advocate.com over the last three years, you came to realize that it didn't matter what Obama did on gay rights, it wasn't enough. When he succeeded in getting the federal hate crimes bill passed, it was insincere. When he said he wouldn't repeal Don't Ask Don't Tell by executive order, it was a betrayal. When he finally got the legislation through, he wasn't a true partner, because he wasn't for gay marriage. That would continue to be true when he stopped defending DOMA in federal courts. Never mind that every single one of these moves was a essential building blocks in what was a classic Lincolnian strategy.

For that very large group of Americans who are indifferent to policy but vote for something "refreshing," that feels good, that "feels like change," the substantive, important changes Obama made to the funding of programs that directly affected them, foreign policy, staffing, the very makeup of the US Supreme Court, these were all irrelevant.

And that is why yesterday matters. Yes, it was historic, yes it was courageous. But more importantly, the President has restored his brand. His profound policy accomplishments went unseen by the many Americans in the center-left who are comfortable enough not to be affected too much by government. But to them, this one matters. It is historic. It's a first. And it's cutting edge.

Even these detached voters know that the President made a decision for individual rights at a politically perilous moment. Because they are comfortable, and excited more by symbols than other concrete achievements, they will now contribute to the President's campaign, even though this President deserved and needed their money long, long before.

So hooray for the President. This decision would have been a political no-brainer by 2016. But this is 2012, and it isn't one yet. North Carolina is probably lost, and Iowa may be far more competitive now. But the President has gained an intangible. The man who staked his presidency on another risky call, signing off on the operation to kill Osama bin Laden, staked his re-election on extending the promise of American equality to a group that was far from loyal to him. It was the right thing to do, and he has gained immeasurably. Barack Obama is once again the candidate of hope to every Democrat.

But the truth is, he had been all along.

Ellen announces the President's decision

Rachel gets the last word

Everything you need to know about President Obama's historic declaration.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Muslim Brotherhood endorses Mitt Romney on gay marriage

Religious bigots are alike, the world over:

Religion-based opposition was also strong in Egypt's conservative Muslim-dominated society, which rejects same-sex relations. Laws prohibiting "debauchery" or "shameless public acts" have been used to imprison gay men in recent years.

"This is unacceptable, because it is against religion, traditions and against God," said engineer Shady Azer in Cairo. "God created Adam and Eve. He didn't create two Adams or two Eves."

In 2008, four HIV-positive Egyptians were sentenced to three years in prison after being convicted of the "habitual practice of debauchery." Human rights groups warned that the case could undermine HIV prevention efforts in Egypt.

Actions by governments worldwide have reflected that diversity of opinion.

White House memo to Democratic officeholders on gay rights

"In the end, the values that the president cares most deeply about is how we treat other people," the memorandum said. "The president and first lady are both practicing Christians, and obviously this position may be considered to put them at odds with the views of others, but when we think about our faith, the thing at root that we think about is not only Christ sacrificing himself on our behalf, but it's also the golden rule: Treat others the way you'd want to be treated."

"We make it absolutely clear that we are talking about civil marriages and civil laws. "This isn't a federal issue. We must be respectful of religious liberty, that churches and other faith institutions are still going to be able to make determinations about what their sacraments are, what they recognize."

Jesuit Thomas Reese on the Paul Ryan/Mitt Romney budget plan